Tourism in 2025: a year of growth in travel expected
Forecasts point to a slower increase in international tourist arrivals and stable figures for resident travel
- The first quarter could see a 10% increase in international arrivals compared to 2024
- Spain, an omnipresent destination in forecasts and trends for 2025
Spain is expected to receive more international tourists in 2025 than in 2024, and Spaniards will take a slightly higher number of trips.
At least for the first part of the year, according to an estimate by Segittur* for the first four-month period, international tourists in Spain could exceed 26 million (10% more than the same period last year), while domestic trips by residents within Spain are expected to reach around 48 million (to see graphs, we recommend to click on "Ampliar el visor")
In this way, the positive figures of recent years would continue, albeit with a slowdown in growth. The same trend is expected with tourism’s contribution to Spain’s economy: while it will remain significant, its impact on economic growth could be lower compared to 2023 and 2024, as highlighted by analyses from CaixaBank Research and Funcas, and as reflected in the latest quarterly report by the Bank of Spain. Exceltur predicts that tourism’s contribution to the national GDP will reach 13.1% in 2024 and rise to 13.5% in 2025, marking a historic high and 1.2% higher than in 2023.
According to Segittur's forecast for the first four months, international tourist spending is expected to increase by around 16% compared to 2024, exceeding 36 billion euros.
Key factors supporting this growth include the full recovery of global tourism to pre-pandemic levels (UN Tourism Barometer), Spain's prominence as a top destination in virtually all forecasts, and the continued high interest in travel (according to SkyScanner data, 80% of travellers plan to do more or the same amount of international tourism as in 2024). The National Observatory of Outbound Tourism, in its analysis of domestic tourism, highlights several challenges for the tourism sector, including high inflation, geopolitical circumstances, conflicts between residents and visitors, extreme weather events and economic factors such as the gap between social classes.
Exceltur, in its 2024 tourism business assessment report and outlook for 2025, points to consumer preference for travel over other types of spending as the main driving force behind tourism in the upcoming new year. It also highlights that cheaper access to financing should encourage investment in the sector. As challenges, it highlights occasional surges of overcrowding and the perception of a lack of control over tourist rental properties.
Spain as a tourist destination
In 2024, Spain was the second most searched-for tourist destination worldwide on Google, only behind the United States, and with a significant lead over competitors such as France, Italy and Turkey. Despite high interest in searches, it was the 16th country with the most growth (fourth in Europe, behind Switzerland, Poland and Denmark). During this period, Madrid was the third city in the world and the first in Europe in terms of growing interest in searches for accommodation and flights. According to the latest data from Mabrian, Madrid will be one of the three European cities with the largest increase in visitors in 2025. Alicante (12th) and Barcelona (25th) also rank among the cities with the greatest rise in search interest.
Spain was the country with the most destinations (Barcelona, Madrid and Palma) among the top ten for reservations on eDreams in the year. They appear in the top 10 destinations on SkyScanner for tourists in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (with increases of more than 15% compared to the previous year). Barcelona and Mallorca appear among the 20 best of the best in the TripAdvisor Travel Choice Awards. Madrid is the top European destination (and fifth in the world) for visitors from America on SkyScanner.
According to Segittur estimates, the Mediterranean area is expected to see the largest increases in international tourist arrivals in the first four months of the year. In particular, the Balearic Islands and the Valencian Community are expected to see more than a 10% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, Exceltur highlights destinations such as Madrid, Barcelona, the major cities of Andalusia and the Canary Islands as those likely to see the most improvement in their figures in 2025.
The report "Horizons: spending, planning and destination prospects for 2025" gives some clues to understanding Spain's positive figures. It identifies two of the pillars of Spain's tourism offer as key in destination selection: gastronomy and climate influence more than 60% of cases. The third factor would is the financial cost (60% worldwide). However, in Spain, this factor has less influence than average when choosing it as a destination (about 5% less). The same report highlights Spain's main tourism source markets (the United Kingdom, Germany and France, along with the Netherlands) as those who are least concerned about visiting less touristy destinations.
Regarding sources of inspiration for preparing a trip, SkyScanner highlights the importance of social media and word of mouth as sources for almost half of trips worldwide and in Spain. However, it is striking how little online media has influenced travel to Spain (it accounts for only 18% of trips compared to the world average of 35%) and how important travel guides are (inspiring 45% of trips to Spain, up to 11 points lower than the global average).
Tourists from Spain's main source markets: United Kingdom, France and Germany
The arrival of tourists from Spain's three largest source markets is clearly on the rise. In fact, in November 2024, the number of tourists from all three countries surpassed the total from the previous year, and the forecast for the end of the year is an increase of between 10% and 12%.
UNITED KINGDOM:
The entry into economic recession at the end of 2023, with a slight improvement in 2024 and a negative shift in the euro, has not reduced the number of tourists arriving from these countries to Spain. The estimates for 2025, as outlined in Turespaña's latest report on British market trends, suggest an approximately 8% growth in outbound tourism. In this regard, the latest report from the Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA) highlights that 68% of UK residents plan to travel abroad in 2025. Additionally, beach destinations remain the preferred choice for almost half, although there is expected to be an increase of 4% of UK residents who would like to travel to a country they have not visited before (45% of the total).
Segittur's estimates for the arrival of British tourists to Spain at the start of 2025 indicate an increase of around 4%. Additionally, the scheduled air capacity for the first quarter from the United Kingdom is expected to be 8% higher than in the first months of 2024, according to data from Forward Keys.
These forecasts are supported by travel intent indices: Spain remains the preferred destination for autumn 2024 – winter 2025, at 16.5%, six points ahead of the second most popular destination (Greece). Turespaña's report also positions Spain as a leader in travel consideration, while it would move to fourth place in satisfaction. The UK's economic situation and the exchange rate of the pound could encourage travel to more affordable destinations such as Turkey and Greece, whose air capacity for this winter season is increasing at a higher rate than Spain's. At the European level, Mabrian identifies several destinations in Egypt, Morocco, Greece, Croatia, Italy and Malta as the main competitors in the supply of coastal tourism.
Google travel searches conducted by UK residents place Spain as the international destination that sparked the most interest in 2024, with figures nearly doubling those of other European destinations. Five Spanish cities appear among the 25 with the highest search interest: Alicante (6), Barcelona (7), Palma (11), Madrid (17) and Ibiza (25). Meanwhile, Seville was the domestic destination with the highest increase in interest in travel searches by UK residents (from 10% to 25%).
Regarding the arrival of British tourists to Spain in 2024, according to available data from the INE's experimental tourism statistics based on mobile phone usage, Benidorm was the top destination, receiving over 5% of British visitors to Spain (close to one million). Barcelona, Adeje, Arona and Calvià also exceeded half a million British tourists. Among the top destinations, the ones that saw the biggest increase up until October were Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Alicante, Manacor and Sant Lluís, each receiving over 50% more British tourists than in 2023.
FRANCE:
In 2024, France closed its second year of moderate GDP growth and increased purchasing power for citizens, factors that could benefit tourism even amid the current political uncertainty.
The outlook for French foreign tourism in 2025 is positive. The Turespaña report on French market trends reflects Oxford Economics' prediction of an increase in tourist spending of around 11%. In addition, certain recent changes in travel habits are noted that could contribute to the de-seasonalisation of tourism: an increase in the number of tourists during the winter, a decrease in average summer stays, and higher tourist spending per day in the spring. The latest data from SiteMinder indicates a 5% increase in French people's intention to travel abroad this year, reaching 64%.
Segittur estimates the arrival of French tourists for the first four months of 2025 to be around 13% higher. Scheduled air capacity is almost 10% higher than in the first quarter of 2024.
Spain remains the top destination for French visitors this winter, improving on last year's figures and overtaking Italy. Among competitors, only Turkey comes close to Spain in this improvement in travel intent and consideration. However, it loses some ground in Mabrian's satisfaction indices and in the YouGov index included in Turespaña's trend report.
Spain is also the top destination by interest in tourism searches on Google from France in 2024, although Italy comes quite close. Four Spanish cities rank among the most searched for in terms of interest: Barcelona (4), Madrid (11), Seville (21) and Palma (23). Meanwhile, Seville is the city that has seen the greatest increase in interest (between 10 and 25%). In data from eDreams, both Barcelona (2) and Madrid (7) appear in the top 10 for bookings in 2024.
The INE's experimental tourism statistics based on mobile phone data show Barcelona as the top destination for French tourists in Spain up until October 2024, with over 6% of tourists. The fifteen destinations welcoming the most French tourists also saw an increase compared to 2023, except in the case of Donostia-San Sebastián.
GERMANY:
Official data indicate a second year of economic contraction, with business and consumer confidence indicators at very low levels, as highlighted in Turespaña's German market trend report. Despite this, the arrival of German tourists to Spain up until November 2024 has improved by 8% compared to the previous year, and Oxford Economics estimates that it will be a record year for outbound tourist spending.
The estimates in Turespaña's trend report point to a strong start to 2025. Scheduled air capacity is growing faster than that of its competitors, and the forecast from the DRV association of tour operators and travel agencies predicts a 4% increase in turnover for the winter 2024-2025 season. Spain ranks as the second destination in terms of travel intent and consideration (though with slightly lower percentages than the previous year).
Segittur's forecast for the first four months of 2025 is that the arrival of German tourists could grow by around 3% compared to 2024, which would mean a significant slowdown in growth. The latest data from Forward Keys also indicate an increase in scheduled air capacity of around 9%.
In the searches made from Germany on Google in 2024, Spain was the country with the highest search interest, and Palma was the top destination. Barcelona (5), Madrid (15), and Alicante (31) also figure among the destinations with the highest search interest. Madrid, Alicante and Valencia are among the cities that saw the greatest increase in search interest from Germany.
Palma was the top German destination in 2024, according to data from the INE's experimental tourism statistics based on mobile phone usage, attracting over 11% of German tourists to Spain up until October. These are followed by Barcelona and Madrid, along with numerous destinations in the Balearic Islands (Calvià, Capdepera, Sant Llorenç des Cardassar and more) and several Canary Islands destinations (Pájara, San Bartolomé de Tirajana and Adeje). All major destinations saw an increase in German tourists in 2024, particularly notable (over 40%) in the cases of Madrid and Lloret de Mar.
Spanish destinations to take centre stage at the start of 2025
Lists of the top recommended destinations are a common feature in many media outlets at the start of the year. In January, the New York Times published a list of 52 global destinations to visit in 2025, including two Spanish destinations. One of these is Canfranc (Huesca), highlighted due to the reopening of the Zaragoza – Canfranc railway line and the revival of its historic station. The other is Montserrat (Barcelona), taking advantage of the 1000th anniversary of the Montserrat Monastery.
The major search engines also publish trends for the year. Skyscanner highlights Córdoba as the sixth fastest-growing global destination in searches (up 133%), Booking identifies Villajoyosa as one of the top ten destinations, and Airbnb lists Seville among the 25 trending destinations of the year.
In terms of specific outbound markets, the Association of British Travel Agents recommends Oviedo as a destination to discover this year, while Airbnb includes Cala d'Or (Mallorca) and Tarragona among the 20 trending destinations for Britons. Meanwhile, Donostia-San Sebastián ranks as the 5th fastest-growing destination in searches from Japan over the past twelve months on Skyscanner.
* The forecasts take into account the official data from Frontur, Egatur, and Etr available up until January 2025, meaning figures for international tourism up to November 2024 and resident tourism figures up to September 2024.