Airline trends for this Christmas in Spanish destinations
What is the outlook for the Christmas season according to passenger air transport data?
- The number of flights to Spanish destinations has grown by 9,3%[i].
- New Year's Eve and Epiphany periods experience improvements in capacity, searches and bookings.
- International bookings increase by 6.3%
- Alicante and the Canary Islands register the highest growth in scheduled capacity, searches and bookings.
We provide you with an analysis of the main air travel trends for this Christmas in Spanish destinations. The data presented includes online flight searches, bookings issued[ii] and seats offered by airlines. The data source is ForwardKeys. Regarding the data on searches and bookings, there is a partial stability, and it may be that this data will improve in the coming weeks[iii].
If you wish to expand on this information, you can consult the monthly Air Transport reports that we prepare for 23 Spanish destinations, as well as review the definition of terms in Reports and analysis of air transport in Spain - Dataestur.
Main indicators: Airlines increase capacity by over 9.3% and bookings improve by 5.2%
For this Christmas, the offer of seats to Spanish cities has increased, according to the air capacity data provided by ForwardKeys. Airlines have increased their capacity by 9.3% compared to the capacity established for last Christmas. This improvement is applies Christmas Eve, New Year's Eve and Epiphany.
In terms of demand, despite a drop in searches (-3.2%), especially for Christmas Eve, bookings remain positive. Bookings have gone up by 5.2%, with a slight drop on Christmas Eve and a 20% increase on New Year's Eve, especially for international flights.
Below are some charts that visualise these trends.
Therefore, according to these air travel trends for this Christmas, supply and demand are showing positive data for Spanish destinations. With room for improvement on the demand side on Christmas Eve.
The capacity forecast mentioned, along with the traffic estimate for last Christmas[iv], could indicate that this is a relevant period.
Based on ForwardKeys traffic estimates and air capacity, the average occupancy rate for last Christmas was 80.7%, with Christmas Eve at 82.1%, New Year's Eve at 79.9% and Epiphany at 80.1%.
Positive trend in search and booking advance curves
Additionally, the timing of searches and bookings for Christmas tends to increase as the travel date approaches. Therefore, there would still be significant volumes of bookings yet to be made, and this could improve current trends.
If we analyse the search and booking trends, we can see that the trend is similar to that of last Christmas. Both curves remain above the curves of last Christmas until approximately 40-50 days before the day of travel. The partial stability of the figure [iii] means that the figure for this Christmas may go up. Therefore, the decrease seen in recent weeks must be interpreted with caution.
International market bookings are higher than last Christmas
Starting with an analysis of the supply, the data on air capacity provided shows growth in domestic flights (with 35% of the total weight, representing +7%) and international flights (+10%). The number of seats offered has improved in a very balanced way for Christmas Eve, New Year's Eve and Epiphany.
Regarding searches, they remain below last year, especially in domestic flights (-12%), which could be improved due to partial stability of the data[iii]. Epiphany is the best-performing period, growing slightly both in domestic and international flights. While a decline is seen for the Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve period in the domestic market.
Bookings have an inverse behaviour depending on the origin: the domestic market is at -1% and the international market is at +6.3% compared to last Christmas, both figures being subject to improvement due to partial stability of the data [iii]. The decline in domestic origin comes from the drop in Christmas Eve (-12%), while the rest of the events are improving. The increase in sales during Epiphany is of notice, since it is also an event where the weight of domestic origin is greater than in the rest of the Christmas events. Regarding international origin, growth comes from bookings to travel on New Year's Eve, along with a smaller drop on Christmas Eve.
Main countries of origin: the seat offering from Italy and Belgium has increased by over 19%
The notable trends in the main countries of origin are:
- The most searched origins are: Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom.
- Searches have increased or decreased the most in: Poland, Switzerland and Belgium.
- The departure points with the largest seating capacity are: Spain, United Kingdom and Germany.
- The departure points that are growing the most in scheduled seats are: Belgium, Italy and the United Kingdom.
- The origins with the most reservations are: Germany, Spain and the United States.
- The origins that are growing the most in bookings are: Ireland, United States and Germany.
Continuing with air travel trends for this Christmas in Spanish destinations, the distribution of capacity and bookings for the main source markets for the TOP 15 destinations is presented.
Spain is the main source in terms of scheduled capacity (44% of the TOP 15 destinations on average). Next comes the British market (with particular relevance for Alicante, Lanzarote, Tenerife, Fuerteventura and Malaga) and the German market (with particular relevance in Fuerteventura, Mallorca and Las Palmas).
Regarding the ranking of main markets by bookings issued, Germany is the main source market (26% on average of the TOP 15 destinations), particularly in Mallorca, La Palma or Bilbao. The United States and Spain follow as markets of origin. With the predominance of American bookings for Madrid and Barcelona and domestic reservations for Melilla, the Balearic Islands, Madrid and the Canary Islands.
Main destinations: Alicante leads the growth compared to last Christmas.
We can identify different trends depending on the Spanish destination. Among the top 15 destinations:
- The most sought-after destinations are: Madrid, Barcelona and Malaga.
- Searches have increased or decreased the most in these destinations: Alicante, Las Palmas and Madrid.
- The destinations with the most seating capacity are: Madrid, Barcelona and Tenerife.
- The destinations with the highest growth in scheduled seats are: Alicante, Las Palmas and Fuerteventura.
- The most booked destinations are: Madrid, Barcelona and Malaga.
- The destinations with the highest growth in reservations are: Alicante, Lanzarote and Tenerife.
You can find more information about air transport at Dataestur.
i] Comparison of the scheduled supply for this Christmas versus the final capacity for last Christmas.
[ii] Partial statistics due to the fact that the volume of data available covers different web providers and may not represent 100% of the market.
[iii] Data relating to searches and bookings for the current Christmas season is subject to change due to partial settlement of the data resulting from data updating and latency.
[iv] The ForwardKeys traffic indicator includes round-trip and transit passengers.
Methodological notes:
The period from 20/12/2024 to 06/01/2025 has been compared with the period from 22/12/2023 to 08/01/2024 for a comparison on the same day of the week.
The period has been grouped by key events:
- Christmas Eve: From 20 to 25 December 2024 and the corresponding period from the previous Christmas season.
- New Year's Eve: From 26 to 31 December 2024 and the corresponding period from the previous Christmas season.
- Epiphany: From 1 to 6 January 2025 and its equivalent from the previous Christmas.
Data updated as at 29/11/2024 with a data latency of less than 7 days.